Friday, 3 February 2012

The Viagra Haircut




So here's what i learned from some young Asian women.

A (usually western) man who is in his late forties or older and who sports a shaved head is identified by the girls as having a "Viagra Haircut".

Western men who are going bald and who are looking for a younger woman will shave their heads because they think it makes them look younger. Often they are also getting to an age where they also need Viagra.

In fact what it communicates loud and clear is that such a man is looking for a young Asian girl and that because he is not smart enough to figure out that he is telegraphing he is an easy (ie stupid) target - the girls will play him for every cent they can get out of him while they try to figure out how much money he really has and whether or not he is likely to marry and if so how hard it might be to get a portion of his wealth. All the while they are laughing about you behind your back (or in front of your face if you don't understand their language).

Men of the same age who do not sport the haircut (balding or otherwise) are considered to be unknowns - ie you have to first convince them you are stupid before they will treat you as such.


So guys, if you are sporting a shaved head in Asia you'd better realize that the girls think you are stupid.

p

ps - check out the viagra haircut on the slimy banker in this video - he comes in at 2:40



(picture from http://quiddityofdelusion.blogspot.com.au)

here's a great Viagra Haircut




Saturday, 28 January 2012

the Atheist and the Christian

"John!"

"Bill is that you?"

"Yes, gosh, it's great to see you. What's it been? ten years?"

"Yes, the last time was at the graduation. How've you been?"

"Great! I'm married now with two kids. What about you?"

"Well, i'm getting married next month. Fantastic girl. Amazing family."

"So, John, you still trying to convert everyone?"

"No. Actually, i'm an atheist now. You know, evolution and all that."

"Unbelievable John. I'd have never imagined you to give up Christianity. It was, like, your defining Characteristic."

"Well Bill, we can all learn. It was like a light went off in my head. It was my fiance who helped me understand. She and her family are atheists. Like you."

"Uh, funny that John. You see, i'm no longer an atheist. I've been saved."

"You're kidding me! You? You were the ultimate atheist right through school. You knew more about evolution than even the science teachers. What happened?"

"Well, i guess i had time to think about it. And my wife, she's a Christian. She opened my eyes to God's Truth."

"That's amazing. Who'd have thought? You! A Christian! Absolutely unbelievable."

"Yeh. Weird ay."

"You believe all that stuff about God?"

"Yeh. I do."

"Like you believe that the earth is only 5000 years old?"

"Yeh. Really. It is."

"You're shitting me."

"No. It's true. Evolution is a scam."

"Well i'll be fucked!."

"Er, i'd prefer it if you'd not be so profane."

"Sorry Bill. I just can't get over it. You really mean it, you've taken to heart everything?"

"Yes. Jesus saved me."

"The Ten Commandments too?"

"Yes, absolutely"

"So, what's the Third Commandment?"

"Ah, 'Don't Kill?'"

"You mean you believe in God now but you don't know the Ten Commandments?"

"Well you don't need to know all the details to believe something. Anyway that was what you were into - all that Bible reading all through school."

"I guess so. Yeh maybe you're right. I can't claim to know a lot about evolution."

"Really? So, what has more impact on diversity - sex or mutation?"

"Ah, mutation i guess. Is that right?"

"You know what John. I recon we should both go get drunk."

"Yeh. I think that's a good idea. You can teach me all about God and I'll teach you all about evolution."

"Crazy."

"Aint it the truth."


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Friday, 27 January 2012

Stocks will go up!

According to Robert Trivers (The Folly of Fools, pp 133, 134 "Positivity in old age") "by age sixty (if not earlier), a striking bias sets in towards positive social perceptions and memories". "[Older people] simply do not attend to negaive information".

Baby Boomers hold a lot of wealth. Combine this wealth with a bias towards the positive and a blindness to the negative and it's quite likely that over the next decade, as more and more boomers enter this age, we shall see some impact on prices. Many still feel that they have not saved enough. What else are they to do but try to reap some profits? If enough are buying it will contribute to positive feedback - sending prices even higher. There certainly does not seem to be too many negatives hindering economic growth - energy seems quite safe for now.

Of course, i am approaching that age group, so maybe i am blind to the negatives.

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Monday, 23 January 2012

Black Swans from a Black Swan

Comment in response to:


    The Black Swan of Cairo, and herehere and here.




Until about 65 million years ago dinosaurs filled every ecological niche imaginable. We poor mammals survived by our wits and tactics we evolved to protect our young for as long as possible. Not only we mammals but a few  other species evolved tactics that kept their young hidden - crocodiles, turtles, birds. They were not to know that a Black Swan event would turn these strategies to another advantage. But that's how natural selection works - traits that aid survival for one reason can lead to survival for an altogether different reason.

The dinosaurs happily laid their eggs in the open air and for tens of millions of years the balmy climate incubated them. Temperature volatility was unknown. Mom dinosaur need only be nearby to protect her clutch - the climate would do the rest.

Eggs can incubate in a very narrow temperature range. Vary outside that range and nothing hatches. If by chance you were a species that evolved to hide eggs where how you did so also provided insulation or warming from the ocean or decomposing vegetable matter your eggs would still hatch. If you were carrying your young around inside they too were protected by your high metabolism (developed to better run from hungry dinosaurs).

Came an unforeseen event - a meteor impact that lowered global temperatures by more than eggs could tolerate and lo - there were no longer any dinosaurs (other than the few that survived in some remote isolated warm places that became dwindling islands of last refuge against the explosion of other species that survived - like us).

I sometimes wonder if by blanket inoculation against all disease there will come a time that, because of collapse of our infrastructure, vaccines will no longer be available. Nor insulin, nor plentiful clean water.

Of course, Murphy always being ready to do his best (worst), such a collapse will come when there are no books left anywhere - we all depend on google for everything and with it gone not only will we not have access to vaccines and modern medicine but we'd not have access to information with which we might recover. We could go from 9 billion to 90 in a matter of decades. Whatever species had been suppressed by us would then be let loose - from viruses and bacteria to everything you can imagine - rats, cockroaches.....

Safety is a two edged sword - one day we too might find ourselves like the dinosaurs - totally dependent on a very narrow set of conditions.

But then, all species have their life cycle.


pop






What do other's have to say?


    One-way Evolution (New Scientist)


    





Thursday, 19 January 2012

Party on Dudes



i've often wondered if the peak of population looms
and our time is bright but short - just like a fleeting flower blooms
and maybe there's no going back - the tipping point's been crossed
'cause we're all of us the most we'll be - peak people






It’s pretty well known that populations can have a lifetime that looks like this:




What Figure 1a depicts is the population over time. It starts with just a few individuals then, as they breed in response to highly available resources and lack of predators, their population grows. Eventually, they become a resource for predators and/or resources deplete and their population falls.

As I progress in this article I would like you to consider the following statement:

The area under the population curve represents the total number of individuals of the species that will ever live.


If the statement was true of humans then statistically it is most likely that I am alive at the same time as the largest number of humans that ever lived:







Whatever might be true of reindeer, rabbits and bacteria etc, there are many people who would argue that humans are different.

For example there’s the idea of a sustainable population:




It’s interesting that the total area under the curve of a sustainable population might be the same area as the normal curve. If this is so then what is the difference if we live now or somewhere else under the curve? In the end the total population would have been the same.


There are also plenty of economists who believe absolutely (or at least assert) that human population growth can continue forever:




That’s an attractive idea though I leave the problem of the really far distant future to the philosophers – the current cosmological model suggests the universe is not infinite.

Assuming that we can grow exponentially forever, the goal then, of all human activity, is to keep us on that curve. Population, resource use, energy use etc must all follow in lock-step the exponential growth curve that leads us to our infinite future.

But every now and then one important curve or another shows a deviation from exponential growth and threatens us with the dark future of the population profile outlined in figure 1a. These I will call the “uh oh” moments:



(And note that there are a few who keep pointing this out eg Declining Economic Growth due to Low Oil Supply Growth)

The “uh oh” moments, economics tell us, will lead to new resources being exploited to bring everything back on track to our infinite future. I call these rescues “phewww” moments:




Of course, those who are strong believers in the idea that we should try and achieve sustainability will see “uh oh” moments differently:




The “doomers” will have a darker view:




I wonder where we are really? I wonder where I am (and you are) on the curve. I certainly hope I’m where Figure 4e suggests I am:



It might be a worry though if I'm actually here:




Where do you think you and I are and on what curve?

Party on dudes.

pop

(a short story on resource depletion: The Land of Skinny People)


Thursday, 12 January 2012

Somebody that i used to know - Gotye and Kimbra

check these out

here's the viral cover:




here's a cover of the cover - ukulele version




here's the original - check out the art work eh :-)



and here's a studio version





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Sunday, 8 January 2012

Richard Feynman/Christopher Sykes

These are great.

The Pleasure of Finding Things Out:



Jiggling Atoms:




Fire:




Rubber Bands:




Magnets (and 'Why?' questions):




Bigger is Electricity:




The Mirror:




The Train:




Seeing Things:




Big Numbers and Stuff (i):




Big Numbers and Stuff (ii):




Ways of Thinking (i):




Ways of Thinking (ii):




The last Journey of a Genius:




No Ordinary Genius:



I got these from RichardDawkins.net


Friday, 6 January 2012

Working together

This brilliant performance/lesson in how we can work together rather than to work a odds with each other.

enjoy




Tuesday, 3 January 2012

Wish upon a Star

i go out to watch the sky
each night
staring for a while
but not too long

some nights i get my wish
a streak of light across the night

so brief

silent

and gone

my wish is faster
and burns more bright

and every shooting star i catch
and hold with my words

brings you closer

closer

*



An old man once explained to me what "wishing on a star" actually meant. After years of watching various people become successful I've come to accept that what he told me was totally insightful.

A shooting star (that which we wish upon) appears for ever so brief a moment and it does so totally unexpectedly. You have maybe 1 second before it disappears from view again.

For your wish to come true you have to make it before the shooting star disappears.

Now i know that that will come as a surprise to most readers - that your wish only comes true if you make it before the star disappears - but if you think about it it makes a lot of sense.

Let's say that you are very focused on something you want to achieve - and that it fills much of your daily thoughts. You want to become a doctor say. You really want it. You do everything that you can to progress towards that goal. Reading medical material. Studying hard. Learning all you can that takes you where you want to go. You live and breath it.

Now, staring at the sky you see a shooting star - and instantly on your lips is the wish to become a doctor. It's totally automatic - there's no thinking about it or weighing this desire against that one. It's a crystalisation of all you are - a doctor.

How likely is it that your wish will come true?

Counter that with the WISHY-washy wish you might make if you can take as much time as you like to make the wish. Unless you have something that really drives you, defines you, you're likely to make any old sort of wish - like a new bicycle or to win the favour of someone or other. The wish will have no meaning and is likely to be forgotten soon after you made it -  your mind wondering off on some tangent triggered by any arbitrary stimulus.

Wishing on a star works - if you are worthy of the wish.

pop


ps - this post was originally a comment posted to The Archdruid Report



Sunday, 1 January 2012

Dilbert does science

This is pretty cool


Oldish physics and not quite so old behaviour science.

p



Friday, 30 December 2011

Some pictures

I've uploaded some pictures to Flickr:

click the picture for more

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Wednesday, 28 December 2011

Melbourne Airport International Departure Lounge

yes males are power
but women are greater still
such is all we are


I think it was 1997 that I first came in contact with the work of the artist Akio Makigawa. I came across a lone sculpture.



(here's some more shots, different angles)

I stood and looked at it for a while as one typically does when studying a work of art. I walked around it. I looked at the whole trying to "grok" it. I looked at each of the parts. I counted them - 5. Hmm, i thought, like the first line of a haiku.

What did it mean? What was the artist trying to say?

Let's look at the parts starting with the top piece.



When it dawned on me what it was the whole sculpture then resolved itself into something that is quite remarkable not because it's a cool piece of art but because it is making a statement so hilariously "in your face" and RUDE! Oh yes "rude" as in sexually explicit and very pornographic.

Oh my God! I laughed out loud right there in the airport. People hearing me must have thought I'd gone a little mad from travel fatigue. How on earth had he got away with it? It was so sexually explicit that surely people would object?

Here's the "deconstruction" for you.

The top piece is a scrotum and erect penis.

Not just erect but piercingly penetrating.

There it sits crowning the rest of the sculpture as if claiming the ultimate greatness of males.

But wait! Upon what does this expression of male power rest?



Upon that which is yet more powerful still - woman. Balanced precariously and oh so painfully on the knee of a woman telling you that not only is male power dependent on the support of women but also that our ultimate weakness is to be kneed in the balls by she who is the basis for all our power. We are powerful yes but we are at the excruciating mercy of our women.

You've heard the expression "a woman sits on a fortune"? And you know the one "worth the world"? Well think of those when you see what the woman is sitting on - a sphere. That sphere is in fact the whole world.

Below comes a cone - with the open end upward - this is the statement "that which is above is the essence of that which is below". The box below is the entire universe.

Man, woman, male power, female power - that is the whole universe.

As you can imagine, once I had it in my head that I understood clearly what the sculpture was, I sought affirmation from others. I approached a number of the various shop attendants and asked them what they thought of the sculpture and what it might mean. Never even noticed it. I asked a number of fellow travelers. Nope, no idea, not interested.

Every time I passed through that lounge I'd go and look again. I'd ask travelers and airport staff. I'd even try and help people to "see" it. Nothing. Ever. Nobody was ever interested and nobody ever looked - it was just another meaningless sculpture with no purpose but to add some more glitz to a sterile place.

Well, maybe I was wrong and it had no meaning whatsoever - it's "just art" and can "mean whatever you want it to mean". Hah! No way because you know what happened next?

I turned up on one of my trips to discover that the lone sculpture had been joined by three others! Cool!

Here's one:



Notice that the woman is now laying face down with the man perched on her bottom. She is still resting on "the world" which instead of a sphere is the letter "W" (for "world").

I leave the other sculptures for you to discover and examine but you will see that there can be little doubt that my interpretation is correct.

Isn't it hilarious?

It's worth a trip to Melbourne just to stand there and look at these wonderful open expressions of human sexuality standing stark amidst the hundreds of unseeing and uncaring travelers who pass them every day.

Makigawa was a clever Japanese man who wrote haiku with objects. Beautiful, simple, and there for you to find enlightenment if only you are mindful enough to see.

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Tuesday, 27 December 2011

Christianity in a nasty world

Seems to me that a fundamental aspect of human nature is the belief that we inherently need the "carrot and the stick".

Whether this belief is innate or is the product of indoctrination I have no idea. Perhaps it's a bit of both.

The funny thing is that this sort of belief is incredibly irrational because it only applies to "other" not to self. I will explain with some anecdotes.

I used to travel the world quite a bit and i was a heavy user of taxi cabs. Knowing my way around and knowing some of the cues that marked a driver seeking to distract me I was frequently aware of when we deviated from shortest routes. Being that I'm a talkative sort and a student of religion I'd often asked or guessed (from hanging icons etc) the religion of the driver. I got it in my head that the only drivers that tried this trick on me were either Christians or Russians (I will explain). Not Muslims, Israeli, Buddhists or anyone else (including atheists). Hindus? I’m still deciding there but they have a decidedly Christian feel to them. After a while I got into a habit of asking drivers before I got into the cab what religion they were. If they told me that they were Christian or I detected a Russian accent I would close the door and look for another cab. Application of this rule of thumb has resulted in me almost never having to get into an argument with drivers seeking to divert from best route. Note that this rule of thumb does not work in places like Vietnam where almost every person will scam you given the chance.

(Side track on Russians - I suspect this was mostly about timing - I'm not sure - but most of the Russians that tried to scam me had escaped from the terrible post-Glasnost era of Russia where millions starved and survival rates above niceties such as morals. Habits formed in such conditions die hard).

Next. In every case where I have been severely stolen from the perpetrator has been a self proclaimed Christian - and this usually in areas with low proportion of practicing Christians. I'm talking about professionals - financial advisers, accountants, businessmen - you name it. It has got to where I have another rule of thumb - if a person ever tells me that they are Christian (without me asking) then I flag it as an indicator that there is a high probability that the person is not to be trusted whatsoever.

Don't ask me to explain it - I have lots of ideas but nothing concrete - these are just rules of thumb that apply in my life and in the places I spend my time. It might be about me - maybe I have a face that Christians and Russians see and interpret "schmuck" - who knows.

My favorite guess is that Christians have a belief system (as opposed to other religions which are primarily action (or ritual) and not belief) and that at some level they understand that this belief system permeates their world such that if they employ the strategy of cheating (a la prisoners dilemma) they will outperform others.

In other words, a world of "believers" is a world ripe for cheaters. Look at the USA for proof of that - a nation of believers being ripped off constantly by self proclaimed Christians.

I believe that the carrot and stick (heaven and hell) does not stop people from behaving badly. I believe that it is how much fat there is in the land (a la Solzhenitsyn) - in a land rich in milk and honey everyone can afford to be nice. The tougher things get the more likely people will choose not so nice paths to survival. Those who first adopt cheating in environments that are deteriorating are most likely to outperform. Those who cling to fading belief systems for safety fall further and further behind until at some stage they too abandon their rules of morality. When this happens you have a world of dog eat dog chaos.

Those religions that are “archaic” and lean towards very harsh application of Law (ie heavy use of the death penalty) find fertile ground in places that have degenerated into chaos. We all want a safe place to live and raise our kids. In a world of lawlessness the sheriff who comes in with the six-gun and Winchester rifle and systematically guns down the bad guys is a world we all recognize though even this archetype has been stolen by the God-less Christians in their attacks on the poor peoples unfortunately living on top of vital resources like oil.

I can understand those who so fear what seems to be coming to our world that instead of following the path that seemed to be forming since the time of Nietzsche – ie towards universal atheism – they are retreating into what they falsely believe is a place of safety: “God”. The more the world showers harshness upon them the more they desperately seek safety in the pictures painted by those who can profit from their fears and the more those who need them for their power profess their Christianity.

At some stage the nakedness of their “God” will be impossible to deny. At that stage people will turn on each other as they move from one extreme to another. When this happens there will be no salvation until civilization has collapsed far enough that the imposition of very harsh law (probably taken from another “book”) is imposed at the point of gun or sword or spear.


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ps. Note that must be said - some of the most beautifully spirited people I have ever known are Christians. Simple, quiet, humble and not proselytizing or making a big deal of their belief - just living a life of goodness as defined by their belief.


Saturday, 24 December 2011

Thursday, 15 December 2011

Flippin' Houses


When everybody watches prices heading for the moon
The urge to buy is like the piper man has played his tune
And all of us rush in and borrow every cent we can
Why be too late? It's mad to wait! Let's buy it off the plan!

chorus:
Flippin' houses, Flippin' houses
Flippin' Flats in Condo Heaven
Let's all buy six or seven
We'll all be millionairs!

Some clever banker figured out a way banks couldn't lose
They'd make a it on the fees each way (and land-laws they'd abuse)
They'd bundle, tranch, get tripple A's and boast their quality
And bet against the very shit they sold to you and me

(chorus)

The US housing bubble crashed and trillions disappeared
Economists they scratched their heads and thought it all quite weird
Old Greenspan he'd backed down from pressure when he'd caught a wiff
While "housing crash" Rubini cried and so did Peter Schiff


(chorus)


The Old World followed soon enough and Iceland crashed and burned
Then all the PIGS they followed suit and so their bonds were spurned
The Euro? Well i guess it's dead good riddance i suggest
Until they each go separate ways what madman would invest?


(chorus)


And China? What a total joke! Their madness trumps us all
They bid up prices none could pay and now we watch them fall
The engine of the world it seems is headed down the drain
And everywhere and everyone will join them in their pain


(chorus)


But we'll be right mate here in Aus - we're different don't you know
Our land is better land than theirs our thinking's not so slow
You can not lose investing in our city CBDs
And even world depression will not bring us to out knees


Flippin' houses, Friggin' houses
all my dreams are shot to hell
all my money's gone as well
worth shit are all my shares





Monday, 12 December 2011

Unix geeks get all choked up


I'm a long time Unix geek. Cut maybe a million lines of C in my life on *nix boxes.

This history of the development of Unix for me is poignant.


Ken Thompson types as Dennis Ritchie looks on in 1972,
shortly after they and their Bell Labs colleagues invented Unix.


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Sunday, 11 December 2011

Science Books 2011


It's always great when someone does the leg work for you.

Finding good books to read might be easier than it was but it's still better if someone you know has a brain hands you a book and says "here read this".

Check it out

Confessions of a Science Librarian

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Saturday, 10 December 2011

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

The Nine Mile Walk

This is not my story but i liked it so much i decided to copy it - enjoy.

Original from here: http://www.101bananas.com/library2/ninemile.html



The Nine Mile Walk

by Harry Kemelman (1947)

I HAD MADE an ass of myself in a speech I had given at the Good Government Association dinner, and Nicky Welt had cornered me at breakfast at the Blue Moon, where we both ate occasionally, for the pleasure of rubbing it in. I had made the mistake of departing from my prepared speech to criticize a statement my predecessor in the office of County Attorney had made to the press. I had drawn a number of inferences from his statement and had thus left myself open to a rebuttal which he had promptly made and which had the effect of making me appear intellectually dishonest. I was new to this political game, having but a few months before left the Law School faculty to become the Reform Party candidate for County Attorney. I said as much in extenuation, but Nicholas Welt, who could never drop his pedagogical manner (he was Snowdon Professor of English Language and Literature), replied in much the same tone that he would dismiss a request from a sophomore for an extension on a term paper, “That’s no excuse.”
       Although he is only two or three years older than I, in his late forties, he always treats me like a schoolmaster hectoring a stupid pupil. And I, perhaps because he looks so much older with his white hair and lined, gnomelike face, suffer it.
       “They were perfectly logical inferences,” I pleaded.
       “My dear boy,” he purred, “although human intercourse is well-nigh impossible without inference, most inferences are usually wrong. The percentage of error is particularly high in the legal profession where the intention is not to discover what the speaker wishes to convey, but rather what he wishes to conceal.”
       I picked up my check and eased out from behind the table.
       “I suppose you are referring to cross-examination of witnesses in court. Well, there’s always an opposing counsel who will object if the inference is illogical.”
       “Who said anything about logic?” he retorted. “An inference can be logical and still not be true.”
       He followed me down the aisle to the cashier’s booth. I paid my check and waited impatiently while he searched in an old-fashioned change purse, fishing out coins one by one and placing them on the counter beside his check, only to discover that the total was insufficient. He slid them back into his purse and with a tiny sigh extracted a bill from another compartment of the purse and handed it to the cashier.
       “Give me any sentence of ten or twelve words,” he said, “and I’ll build you a logical chain of inferences that you never dreamed of when you framed the sentence.”
       Other customers were coming in, and since the space in front of the cashier’s booth was small, I decided to wait outside until Nicky completed his transaction with the cashier. I remember being mildly amused at the idea that he probably thought I was still at his elbow and was going right ahead with his discourse.
       When he joined me on the sidewalk I said, “A nine mile walk is no joke, especially in the rain.”
       “No, I shouldn’t think it would be,” he agreed absently. Then he stopped in his stride and looked at me sharply. “What the devil are you talking about?”
       “It’s a sentence and it has eleven words,” I insisted. And I repeated the sentence, ticking off the words on my fingers.
       “What about it?”
       “You said that given a sentence of ten or twelve words—”
       “Oh, yes.” He looked at me suspiciously. “Where did you get it?”
       “It just popped into my head. Come on now, build your inferences.”
       “You’re serious about this?” he asked, his little blue eyes glittering with amusement. “You really want me to?”
       It was just like him to issue a challenge and then to appear amused when I accepted it. And it made me angry.
       “Put up or shut up,” I said.
       “All right,” he said mildly. “No need to be huffy. I’ll play. Hmm, let me see, how did the sentence go? ‘A nine mile walk is no joke, especially in the rain.’ Not much to go on there.”
       “It’s more than ten words,” I rejoined.
       “Very well.” His voice became crisp as he mentally squared off to the problem. “First inference: the speaker is aggrieved.”
       “I’ll grant that,” I said, “although it hardly seems to be an inference. It’s really implicit in the statement.”
       He nodded impatiently. “Next inference: the rain was unforeseen, otherwise he would have said, ‘A nine mile walk in the rain is no joke,’ instead of using the ‘especially’ phrase as an afterthought.”
       “I’ll allow that,” I said, “although it’s pretty obvious.”
       “First inferences should be obvious,” said Nicky tartly.
       I let it go at that. He seemed to be floundering and I didn’t want to rub it in.
       “Next inference: the speaker is not an athlete or an outdoors man.”
       “You’ll have to explain that one,” I said.
       “It’s the ‘especially’ phrase again,” he said. “The speaker does not say that a nine mile walk in the rain is no joke, but merely the walk—just the distance, mind you—is no joke. Now, nine miles is not such a terribly long distance. You walk more than half that in eighteen holes of golf—and golf is an old man’s game,” he added slyly. I play golf.
       “Well, that would be all right under ordinary circumstances,” I said, “but there are other possibilities. The speaker might be a soldier in the jungle, in which case nine miles would be a pretty good hike, rain or no rain.”
       “Yes,” and Nicky was sarcastic, “and the speaker might be one-legged. For that matter, the speaker might be a graduate student writing a Ph.D. thesis on humor and starting by listing all the things that are not funny. See here, I’ll have to make a couple of assumptions before I continue.”
       “How do you mean?” I asked, suspiciously.
       “Remember, I’m taking this sentence in vacuo, as it were. I don’t know who said it or what the occasion was. Normally a sentence belongs in the framework of a situation.”
       “I see. What assumptions do you want to make?”
       “For one thing, I want to assume that the intention was not frivolous, that the speaker is referring to a walk that was actually taken, and that the purpose of the walk was not to win a bet or something of that sort.”
       “That seems reasonable enough,” I said.
       “And I also want to assume that the locale of the walk is here.”
       “You mean here in Fairfield?”
       “Not necessarily. I mean in this general section of the country.”
       “Fair enough.”
       “Then, if you grant those assumptions, you’ll have to accept my last inference that the speaker is no athlete or outdoors man.”
       “Well, all right, go on.”
       “Then my next inference is that the walk was taken very late at night or very early in the morning—say, between midnight and five or six in the morning.”
       “How do you figure that one?” I asked.
       “Consider the distance, nine miles. We’re in a fairly well-populated section. Take any road and you’ll find a community of some sort in less than nine miles. Hadley is five miles away, Hadley Falls is seven and a half, Goreton is eleven, but East Goreton is only eight and you strike East Goreton before you come to Goreton. There is local train service along the Goreton road and bus service along the others. All the highways are pretty well traveled. Would anyone have to walk nine miles in a rain unless it were late at night when no buses or trains were running and when the few automobiles that were out would hesitate to pick up a stranger on the highway?”
       “He might not have wanted to be seen,” I suggested.
       Nicky smiled pityingly. “You think he would be less noticeable trudging along the highway than he would be riding in a public conveyance where everyone is usually absorbed in his newspaper?”
       “Well, I won’t press the point,” I said brusquely.
       “Then try this one: he was walking toward a town rather than away from one.”
       I nodded. “It is more likely, I suppose. If he were in a town, he could probably arrange for some sort of transportation. Is that the basis for your inference?”
       “Partly that,” said Nicky, “but there is also an inference to be drawn from the distance. Remember, it’s a nine mile walk and nine is one of the exact numbers.”
       “I’m afraid I don’t understand.”
       That exasperated schoolteacher-look appeared on Nicky’s face again. “Suppose you say, ‘I took a ten mile walk’ or ‘a hundred mile drive’; I would assume that you actually walked anywhere from eight to a dozen miles, or that you rode between ninety and a hundred and ten miles. In other words, ten and hundred are round numbers. You might have walked exactly ten miles or just as likely you might have walkedapproximately ten miles. But when you speak of walking nine miles, I have a right to assume that you have named an exact figure. Now, we are far more likely to know the distance of the city from a given point than we are to know the distance of a given point from the city. That is, ask anyone in the city how far out Farmer Brown lives, and if he knows him, he will say, ‘Three or four miles.’ But ask Farmer Brown how far he lives from the city and he will tell you ‘Three and six-tenths miles—measured it on my speedometer many a time.’ ”
       “It’s weak, Nicky,” I said.
       “But in conjunction with your own suggestion that he could have arranged transportation if he had been in a city—”
       “Yes, that would do it,” I said. “I’ll pass it. Any more?”
       “I’ve just begun to hit my stride,” he boasted. “My next inference is that he was going to a definite destination and that he had to be there at a particular time. It was not a case of going off to get help because his car broke down or his wife was going to have a baby or somebody was trying to break into his house.”
       “Oh, come now,” I said, “the car breaking down is really the most likely situation. He could have known the exact distance from having checked the mileage just as he was leaving the town.”
       Nicky shook his head. “Rather than walk nine miles in the rain, he would have curled up on the back seat and gone to sleep, or at least stayed by his car and tried to flag another motorist. Remember, it’s nine miles. What would be the least it would take him to hike it?”
       “Four hours,” I offered.
       He nodded. “Certainly no less, considering the rain. We’ve agreed that it happened very late at night or very early in the morning. Suppose he had his breakdown at one o’clock in the morning. It would be five o’clock before he would arrive. That’s daybreak. You begin to see a lot of cars on the road. The buses start just a little later. In fact, the first buses hit Fairfield around five-thirty. Besides, if he were going for help, he would not have to go all the way to town—only as far as the nearest telephone. No, he had a definite appointment, and it was in a town, and it was for some time before five-thirty.”
       “Then why couldn’t he have got there earlier and waited?” I asked. “He could have taken the last bus, arrived around one o’clock, and waited until his appointment. He walks nine miles in the rain instead, and you said he was no athlete.”
       We had arrived at the Municipal Building where my office is. Normally, any arguments begun at the Blue Moon ended at the entrance to the Municipal Building. But I was interested in Nicky’s demonstration and I suggested that he come up for a few minutes.
       When we were seated I said, “How about it, Nicky, why couldn’t he have arrived early and waited?”
       “He could have,” Nicky retorted. “But since he did not, we must assume that he was either detained until after the last bus left, or that he had to wait where he was for a signal of some sort, perhaps a telephone call.”
       “Then according to you, he had an appointment some time between midnight and five-thirty—”
       “We can draw it much finer than that. Remember, it takes him four hours to walk the distance. The last bus stops at twelve-thirty A.M. If he doesn’t take that, but starts at the same time, he won’t arrive at his destination until four-thirty. On the other hand, if he takes the first bus in the morning, he will arrive around five-thirty. That would mean that his appointment was for some time between four-thirty and five-thirty.”
       “You mean that if his appointment was earlier than four-thirty, he would have taken the last night bus, and if it was later than five-thirty, he would have taken the first morning bus?”
       “Precisely. And another thing: if he was waiting for a signal or a phone call, it must have come not much later than one o’clock.”
       “Yes, I see that,” I said. “If his appointment is around five o’clock and it takes him four hours to walk the distance, he’d have to start around one.”
       He nodded, silent and thoughtful. For some queer reason I could not explain, I did not feel like interrupting his thoughts. On the wall was a large map of the county and I walked over to it and began to study it.
       “You’re right, Nicky,” I remarked over my shoulder, “there’s no place as far as nine miles away from Fairfield that doesn’t hit another town first. Fairfield is right in the middle of a bunch of smaller towns.”
       He joined me at the map. “It doesn’t have to be Fairfield, you know,” he said quietly. “It was probably one of the outlying towns he had to reach. Try Hadley.”
       “Why Hadley? What would anyone want in Hadley at five o’clock in the morning?”
       “The Washington Flyer stops there to take on water about that time,” he said quietly.
       “That’s right, too,” I said. “I’ve heard that train many a night when I couldn’t sleep. I’d hear it pulling in and then a minute or two later I’d hear the clock on the Methodist Church banging out five.” I went back to my desk for a timetable. “The Flyer leaves Washington at twelve forty-seven A.M. and gets into Boston at eight A.M.”
       Nicky was still at the map measuring distances with a pencil.
       “Exactly nine miles from Hadley is the Old Sumter Inn,” he announced.
       “Old Sumter Inn,” I echoed. “But that upsets the whole theory. You can arrange for transportation there as easily as you can in a town.”
       He shook his head. “The cars are kept in an enclosure and you have to get an attendant to check you through the gate. The attendant would remember anyone taking out his car at a strange hour. It’s a pretty conservative place. He could have waited in his room until he got a call from Washington about someone on the Flyer—maybe the number of the car and the berth. Then he could just slip out of the hotel and walk to Hadley.”
       I stared at him, hypnotized.
       “It wouldn’t be difficult to slip aboard while the train was taking on water, and then if he knew the car number and the berth—”
       “Nicky,” I said portentously, “as the Reform District Attorney who campaigned on an economy program, I am going to waste the taxpayers’ money and call Boston long distance. It’s ridiculous, it’s insane—but I’m going to do it!”
       His little blue eyes glittered and he moistened his lips with the tip of his tongue.
       “Go ahead,” he said hoarsely.
I REPLACED THE telephone in its cradle.
       “Nicky,” I said, “this is probably the most remarkable coincidence in the history of criminal investigation: a man was found murdered in his berth on last night’s twelve-forty-seven from Washington! He’d been dead about three hours, which would make it exactly right for Hadley.”
       “I thought it was something like that,” said Nicky. “But you’re wrong about its being a coincidence. It can’t be. Where did you get that sentence?”
       “It was just a sentence. It simply popped into my head.”
       “It couldn’t have! It’s not the sort of sentence that pops into one’s head. If you had taught composition as long as I have, you’d know that when you ask someone for a sentence of ten words or so, you get an ordinary statement such as ‘I like milk’—with the other words made up by a modifying clause like, ‘because it is good for my health.’ The sentence you offered related to a particular situation.”
       “But I tell you I talked to no one this morning. And I was alone with you at the Blue Moon.”
       “You weren’t with me all the time I paid my check,” he said sharply. “Did you meet anyone while you were waiting on the sidewalk for me to come out of the Blue Moon?”
       I shook my head. “I was outside for less than a minute before you joined me. You see, a couple of men came in while you were digging out your change and one of them bumped me, so I thought I’d wait—”
       “Did you ever see them before?”
       “Who?”
       “The two men who came in,” he said, the note of exasperation creeping into his voice again.
       “Why, no—they weren’t anyone I knew.”
       “Were they talking?”
       “I guess so. Yes, they were. Quite absorbed in their conversation, as a matter of fact—otherwise, they would have noticed me and I would not have been bumped.”
       “Not many strangers come into the Blue Moon,” he remarked.
       “Do you think it was they?” I asked eagerly. “I think I’d know them again if I saw them.”
       Nicky’s eyes narrowed. “It’s possible. There had to be two—one to trail the victim in Washington and ascertain his berth number, the other to wait here and do the job. The Washington man would be likely to come down here afterwards. If there was theft as well as murder, it would be to divide the spoils. If it was just murder, he would probably have to come down to pay off his confederate.”
       I reached for the telephone.
       “We’ve been gone less than half an hour,” Nicky went on. “They were just coming in and service is slow at the Blue Moon. The one who walked all the way to Hadley must certainly be hungry and the other probably drove all night from Washington.”
       “Call me immediately if you make an arrest,” I said into the phone and hung up.
       Neither of us spoke a word while we waited. We paced the floor, avoiding each other almost as though we had done something we were ashamed of.
       The telephone rang at last. I picked it up and listened. Then I said, “O.K.” and turned to Nicky.
       “One of them tried to escape through the kitchen but Winn had someone stationed at the back and they got him.”
       “That would seem to prove it,” said Nicky with a frosty little smile.
       I nodded agreement.
       He glanced at his watch. “Gracious,” he exclaimed, “I wanted to make an early start on my work this morning, and here I’ve already wasted all this time talking with you.”
       I let him get to the door. “Oh, Nicky,” I called, “what was it you set out to prove?”
       “That a chain of inferences could be logical and still not be true,” he said.
       “Oh.”
       “What are you laughing at?” he asked snappishly. And then he laughed too.