Party on Dudes

i've often wondered if the peak of population looms
and our time is bright but short - just like a fleeting flower blooms

and maybe there's no going back - the tipping point's been crossed
'cause we're all of us the most we'll be - peak people

(peak people)

It’s pretty well known that populations can have a lifetime that looks like this:

What Figure 1a depicts is the population over time. It starts with just a few individuals then, as they breed in response to highly available resources and lack of predators, their population grows. Eventually, they become a resource for predators and/or resources deplete and their population falls.

As I progress in this article I would like you to consider the following statement:

The area under the population curve represents the total number of individuals of the species that will ever live.

If the statement was true of humans then statistically it is most likely that I am alive at the same time as the largest number of humans that ever lived:

Whatever might be true of reindeer, rabbits and bacteria etc, there are many people who would argue that humans are different.

For example there’s the idea of a sustainable population:

It’s interesting that the total area under the curve of a sustainable population might be the same area as the normal curve. If this is so then what is the difference if we live now or somewhere else under the curve? In the end the total population would have been the same.

There are also plenty of economists who believe absolutely (or at least assert) that human population growth can continue forever:

That’s an attractive idea though I leave the problem of the really far distant future to the philosophers – the current cosmological model suggests the universe is not infinite.

Assuming that we can grow exponentially forever, the goal then, of all human activity, is to keep us on that curve. Population, resource use, energy use etc must all follow in lock-step the exponential growth curve that leads us to our infinite future.

But every now and then one important curve or another shows a deviation from exponential growth and threatens us with the dark future of the population profile outlined in figure 1a. These I will call the “uh oh” moments:

(And note that there are a few who keep pointing this out eg Declining Economic Growth due to Low Oil Supply Growth)

The “uh oh” moments, economics tell us, will lead to new resources being exploited to bring everything back on track to our infinite future. I call these rescues “phewww” moments:

Of course, those who are strong believers in the idea that we should try and achieve sustainability will see “uh oh” moments differently:

The “doomers” will have a darker view:

I wonder where we are really? I wonder where I am (and you are) on the curve. I certainly hope I’m where Figure 4e suggests I am:

It might be a worry though if I'm actually here:

Where do you think you and I are and on what curve?

Party on dudes.

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(a short story on resource depletion: The Land of Skinny People)

Somebody that i used to know - Gotye and Kimbra

check these out

here's the viral cover:




here's a cover of the cover - ukulele version




here's the original - check out the art work eh :-)



and here's a studio version





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Richard Feynman/Christopher Sykes

These are great.

The Pleasure of Finding Things Out:



Jiggling Atoms:




Fire:




Rubber Bands:




Magnets (and 'Why?' questions):




Bigger is Electricity:




The Mirror:




The Train:




Seeing Things:




Big Numbers and Stuff (i):




Big Numbers and Stuff (ii):




Ways of Thinking (i):




Ways of Thinking (ii):




The last Journey of a Genius:




No Ordinary Genius:



I got these from RichardDawkins.net

Working together

This brilliant performance/lesson in how we can work together rather than to work a odds with each other.

enjoy

Wish upon a Star

i go out to watch the sky

each night

staring for a while

but not too long

some nights i get my wish

a streak of light across the night

so brief

silent

and gone

my wish is faster

and burns more bright

and every shooting star i catch

and hold with my words

brings you closer

closer

*

An old man once explained to me what "wishing on a star" actually meant. After years of watching various people become successful I've come to accept that what he told me was totally insightful.

A shooting star (that which we wish upon) appears for ever so brief a moment and it does so totally unexpectedly. You have maybe 1 second before it disappears from view again.

For your wish to come true you have to make it before the shooting star disappears.

Now i know that that will come as a surprise to most readers - that your wish only comes true if you make it before the star disappears - but if you think about it it makes a lot of sense.

Let's say that you are very focused on something you want to achieve - and that it fills much of your daily thoughts. You want to become a doctor say. You really want it. You do everything that you can to progress towards that goal. Reading medical material. Studying hard. Learning all you can that takes you where you want to go. You live and breath it.

Now, staring at the sky you see a shooting star - and instantly on your lips is the wish to become a doctor. It's totally automatic - there's no thinking about it or weighing this desire against that one. It's a crystalisation of all you are - a doctor.

How likely is it that your wish will come true?

Counter that with the WISHY-washy wish you might make if you can take as much time as you like to make the wish. Unless you have something that really drives you, defines you, you're likely to make any old sort of wish - like a new bicycle or to win the favour of someone or other. The wish will have no meaning and is likely to be forgotten soon after you made it -  your mind wondering off on some tangent triggered by any arbitrary stimulus.

Wishing on a star works - if you are worthy of the wish.

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ps - this post was originally a comment posted to The Archdruid Report

Dilbert does science

This is pretty cool

Oldish physics and not quite so old behaviour science.

p

Some pictures

I've uploaded some pictures to Flickr:

click the picture for more

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Melbourne Airport International Departure Lounge

yes males are power

but women are greater still

such is all we are

I think it was 1997 that I first came in contact with the work of the artist Akio Makigawa. I came across a lone sculpture.

(here's some more shots, different angles)

I stood and looked at it for a while as one typically does when studying a work of art. I walked around it. I looked at the whole trying to "grok" it. I looked at each of the parts. I counted them - 5. Hmm, i thought, like the first line of a haiku.

What did it mean? What was the artist trying to say?

Let's look at the parts starting with the top piece.

When it dawned on me what it was the whole sculpture then resolved itself into something that is quite remarkable not because it's a cool piece of art but because it is making a statement so hilariously "in your face" and RUDE! Oh yes "rude" as in sexually explicit and very pornographic.

Oh my God! I laughed out loud right there in the airport. People hearing me must have thought I'd gone a little mad from travel fatigue. How on earth had he got away with it? It was so sexually explicit that surely people would object?

Here's the "deconstruction" for you.

The top piece is a scrotum and erect penis.

Not just erect but piercingly penetrating.

There it sits crowning the rest of the sculpture as if claiming the ultimate greatness of males.

But wait! Upon what does this expression of male power rest?

Upon that which is yet more powerful still - woman. Balanced precariously and oh so painfully on the knee of a woman telling you that not only is male power dependent on the support of women but also that our ultimate weakness is to be kneed in the balls by she who is the basis for all our power. We are powerful yes but we are at the excruciating mercy of our women.

You've heard the expression "a woman sits on a fortune"? And you know the one "worth the world"? Well think of those when you see what the woman is sitting on - a sphere. That sphere is in fact the whole world.

Below comes a cone - with the open end upward - this is the statement "that which is above is the essence of that which is below". The box below is the entire universe.

Man, woman, male power, female power - that is the whole universe.

As you can imagine, once I had it in my head that I understood clearly what the sculpture was, I sought affirmation from others. I approached a number of the various shop attendants and asked them what they thought of the sculpture and what it might mean. Never even noticed it. I asked a number of fellow travelers. Nope, no idea, not interested.

Every time I passed through that lounge I'd go and look again. I'd ask travelers and airport staff. I'd even try and help people to "see" it. Nothing. Ever. Nobody was ever interested and nobody ever looked - it was just another meaningless sculpture with no purpose but to add some more glitz to a sterile place.

Well, maybe I was wrong and it had no meaning whatsoever - it's "just art" and can "mean whatever you want it to mean". Hah! No way because you know what happened next?

I turned up on one of my trips to discover that the lone sculpture had been joined by three others! Cool!

Here's one:

Notice that the woman is now laying face down with the man perched on her bottom. She is still resting on "the world" which instead of a sphere is the letter "W" (for "world").

I leave the other sculptures for you to discover and examine but you will see that there can be little doubt that my interpretation is correct.

Isn't it hilarious?

It's worth a trip to Melbourne just to stand there and look at these wonderful open expressions of human sexuality standing stark amidst the hundreds of unseeing and uncaring travelers who pass them every day.

Makigawa was a clever Japanese man who wrote haiku with objects. Beautiful, simple, and there for you to find enlightenment if only you are mindful enough to see.

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Christianity in a nasty world

Seems to me that a fundamental aspect of human nature is the belief that we inherently need the "carrot and the stick".

Whether this belief is innate or is the product of indoctrination I have no idea. Perhaps it's a bit of both.

The funny thing is that this sort of belief is incredibly irrational because it only applies to "other" not to self. I will explain with some anecdotes.

I used to travel the world quite a bit and i was a heavy user of taxi cabs. Knowing my way around and knowing some of the cues that marked a driver seeking to distract me I was frequently aware of when we deviated from shortest routes. Being that I'm a talkative sort and a student of religion I'd often asked or guessed (from hanging icons etc) the religion of the driver. I got it in my head that the only drivers that tried this trick on me were either Christians or Russians (I will explain). Not Muslims, Israeli, Buddhists or anyone else (including atheists). Hindus? I’m still deciding there but they have a decidedly Christian feel to them. After a while I got into a habit of asking drivers before I got into the cab what religion they were. If they told me that they were Christian or I detected a Russian accent I would close the door and look for another cab. Application of this rule of thumb has resulted in me almost never having to get into an argument with drivers seeking to divert from best route. Note that this rule of thumb does not work in places like Vietnam where almost every person will scam you given the chance.

(Side track on Russians - I suspect this was mostly about timing - I'm not sure - but most of the Russians that tried to scam me had escaped from the terrible post-Glasnost era of Russia where millions starved and survival rates above niceties such as morals. Habits formed in such conditions die hard).

Next. In every case where I have been severely stolen from the perpetrator has been a self proclaimed Christian - and this usually in areas with low proportion of practicing Christians. I'm talking about professionals - financial advisers, accountants, businessmen - you name it. It has got to where I have another rule of thumb - if a person ever tells me that they are Christian (without me asking) then I flag it as an indicator that there is a high probability that the person is not to be trusted whatsoever.

Don't ask me to explain it - I have lots of ideas but nothing concrete - these are just rules of thumb that apply in my life and in the places I spend my time. It might be about me - maybe I have a face that Christians and Russians see and interpret "schmuck" - who knows.

My favorite guess is that Christians have a belief system (as opposed to other religions which are primarily action (or ritual) and not belief) and that at some level they understand that this belief system permeates their world such that if they employ the strategy of cheating (a la prisoners dilemma) they will outperform others.

In other words, a world of "believers" is a world ripe for cheaters. Look at the USA for proof of that - a nation of believers being ripped off constantly by self proclaimed Christians.

I believe that the carrot and stick (heaven and hell) does not stop people from behaving badly. I believe that it is how much fat there is in the land (a la Solzhenitsyn) - in a land rich in milk and honey everyone can afford to be nice. The tougher things get the more likely people will choose not so nice paths to survival. Those who first adopt cheating in environments that are deteriorating are most likely to outperform. Those who cling to fading belief systems for safety fall further and further behind until at some stage they too abandon their rules of morality. When this happens you have a world of dog eat dog chaos.

Those religions that are “archaic” and lean towards very harsh application of Law (ie heavy use of the death penalty) find fertile ground in places that have degenerated into chaos. We all want a safe place to live and raise our kids. In a world of lawlessness the sheriff who comes in with the six-gun and Winchester rifle and systematically guns down the bad guys is a world we all recognize though even this archetype has been stolen by the God-less Christians in their attacks on the poor peoples unfortunately living on top of vital resources like oil.

I can understand those who so fear what seems to be coming to our world that instead of following the path that seemed to be forming since the time of Nietzsche – ie towards universal atheism – they are retreating into what they falsely believe is a place of safety: “God”. The more the world showers harshness upon them the more they desperately seek safety in the pictures painted by those who can profit from their fears and the more those who need them for their power profess their Christianity.

At some stage the nakedness of their “God” will be impossible to deny. At that stage people will turn on each other as they move from one extreme to another. When this happens there will be no salvation until civilization has collapsed far enough that the imposition of very harsh law (probably taken from another “book”) is imposed at the point of gun or sword or spear.


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ps. Note that must be said - some of the most beautifully spirited people I have ever known are Christians. Simple, quiet, humble and not proselytizing or making a big deal of their belief - just living a life of goodness as defined by their belief.

Drive safe

What is there to say?




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